SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 43.33%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.8%) and 0-2 (5.9%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 2-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toulouse | Draw | Lille |
33.56% ( 0.01) | 23.11% ( -0.06) | 43.33% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 64.06% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.82% ( 0.31) | 37.18% ( -0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.62% ( 0.34) | 59.38% ( -0.33) |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.78% ( 0.15) | 22.22% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.36% ( 0.22) | 55.64% ( -0.22) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.36% ( 0.15) | 17.64% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.75% ( 0.26) | 48.25% ( -0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toulouse | Draw | Lille |
| 2-1 @ 7.69% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.9% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 4.44% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.86% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.35% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 2.22% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.45% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.39% Total : 33.56% | 1-1 @ 10.23% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.67% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.35% Total : 23.11% | 1-2 @ 8.87% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 5.13% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.86% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 3.41% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.23% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.67% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.98% Total : 43.33% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 76 | 34 | 42 | 75 |
| 2 | Lens | 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 72 |
| 3 | Marseille | 34 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 62 | 34 | 28 | 70 |
| 4 | MonacoMonaco | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 41 | 19 | 59 |
| 6 | Rennes | 34 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 56 |
| 7 | Lyon | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 57 | 41 | 16 | 56 |
| 8 | Nice | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 42 | 32 | 10 | 51 |
| 9 | Lorient | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 51 |
| 10 | Reims | 34 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 50 |
| 11 | Clermont | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 50 |
| 12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 34 | 13 | 4 | 17 | 56 | 57 | -1 | 43 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 42 |
| 14 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 35 |
| 15 | Brest | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 35 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 34 |
| 17 | NantesNantes | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 32 |
| 18 | Ajaccio | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 61 | -39 | 23 |
| 19 | Troyes | 33 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 22 |
| R | Angers | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 28 | 74 | -46 | 14 |
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