SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 40.66%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 35.06% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.82%) and 0-2 (6.1%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 2-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
35.06% ( -0.17) | 24.28% ( -0.07) | 40.66% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 60.15% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.53% ( 0.28) | 42.46% ( -0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.13% ( 0.28) | 64.86% ( -0.29) |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.14% ( 0.03) | 23.85% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.95% ( 0.05) | 58.04% ( -0.06) |
| Accrington Stanley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.99% ( 0.23) | 21% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.22% ( 0.36) | 53.77% ( -0.37) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
| 2-1 @ 8.03% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 7.18% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 5.15% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 3.84% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.99% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.46% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.38% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.97% Total : 35.06% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 5.01% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.27% | 1-2 @ 8.74% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.82% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 6.1% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.55% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 3.17% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.77% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.73% Total : 40.66% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 56 | 27 | 29 | 54 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 54 | 36 | 18 | 52 |
| 3 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 26 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 50 |
| 4 | BarrowBarrow | 27 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 40 | 26 | 14 | 49 |
| 5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50 | 40 | 10 | 47 |
| 6 | Notts County | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 60 | 52 | 8 | 43 |
| 7 | MK Dons | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 41 |
| 9 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 40 |
| 10 | AFC Wimbledon | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 41 | 30 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | Crawley TownCrawley | 27 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 39 |
| 12 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 38 |
| 13 | Walsall | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 36 |
| 14 | Bradford CityBradford | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 35 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 34 |
| 16 | Morecambe | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 34 |
| 17 | Newport CountyNewport | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 34 |
| 18 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 28 | 10 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 33 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 28 |
| 20 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 27 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 28 |
| 21 | Salford City | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 27 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 25 |
| 23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 26 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 54 | -24 | 19 |
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 26 | 48 | -22 | 18 |
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