SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 39.11%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 37.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.93%) and 0-2 (5.51%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Accrington Stanley | Draw | Swindon Town |
37.18% ( -0.13) | 23.71% ( 0.09) | 39.11% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 62.56% ( -0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.55% ( -0.45) | 39.44% ( 0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.21% ( -0.47) | 61.79% ( 0.48) |
| Accrington Stanley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.63% ( -0.26) | 21.37% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.65% ( -0.41) | 54.34% ( 0.42) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.57% ( -0.17) | 20.43% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.12% ( -0.28) | 52.88% ( 0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Accrington Stanley | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.26% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 5.2% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.25% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.68% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.72% Total : 37.18% | 1-1 @ 10.7% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 6.56% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.71% | 1-2 @ 8.5% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 4.5% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.47% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.79% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.16% ( -0)Other @ 2.97% Total : 39.11% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 51 |
| 2 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 25 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 49 |
| 3 | Wrexham | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 49 |
| 4 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 48 |
| 5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 44 |
| 6 | Notts County | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 42 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 39 |
| 8 | MK Dons | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Crawley TownCrawley | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 39 |
| 10 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 38 |
| 11 | Gillingham | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 38 |
| 12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 37 |
| 13 | Walsall | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 36 | 3 | 36 |
| 14 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 52 | -3 | 34 |
| 16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 |
| 17 | Morecambe | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 33 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 31 |
| 19 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 28 |
| 20 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 27 |
| 21 | Salford City | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 24 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 24 |
| 23 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 18 |
| 24 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 18 |
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