Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.21%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 33.2% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.46%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 0-1 (12.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
0.17) 
-0.01) 
