SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Carlisle United | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 | Sutton United | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 19 | Newport County | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 20 | Gillingham | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 21 | Stockport County | 5 | -3 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 43.65%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 27.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.85%) and 2-1 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.14%), while for a Gillingham win it was 0-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Carlisle United in this match.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Gillingham |
43.65% ( -0.05) | 28.87% ( 0.02) | 27.49% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 42.99% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.95% ( -0.03) | 63.06% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.49% ( -0.03) | 82.51% ( 0.03) |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.23% ( -0.04) | 28.77% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.39% ( -0.06) | 64.62% ( 0.06) |
| Gillingham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.35% ( 0.02) | 39.65% ( -0.01) |
