SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Northampton Town | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Carlisle United | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Doncaster Rovers | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Grimsby Town | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Swindon Town | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Hartlepool United | 2 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 52.21%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 22.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.16%) and 1-2 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (7.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Swindon Town |
22.32% ( 0.08) | 25.47% ( -0.3) | 52.21% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 47.56% ( 0.92) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.13% ( 1.16) | 54.88% ( -1.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.83% ( 0.95) | 76.17% ( -0.95) |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.24% ( 0.74) | 39.76% ( -0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 23.57% ( 0.68) | 76.43% ( -0.67) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.96% ( 0.57) | 21.04% ( -0.57) |
