SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 29.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.
| Result | ||
| Port Vale | Draw | Derby County |
29.29% ( -1.45) | 27.2% ( -0.69) | 43.5% ( 2.13) |
| Both teams to score 48.44% ( 1.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.35% ( 1.97) | 56.64% ( -1.98) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.39% ( 1.56) | 77.61% ( -1.57) |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.31% ( -0.04) | 34.69% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.58% ( -0.04) | 71.41% ( 0.04) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.17% ( 2.05) | 25.83% ( -2.05) |
