SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 36.76%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.93%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barnsley | Draw | Derby County |
36.76% ( -0.03) | 27.59% ( 0) | 35.65% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 49.05% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.3% ( -0.01) | 56.7% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.34% ( -0) | 77.66% ( 0) |
| Barnsley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.38% ( -0.02) | 29.62% ( 0.02) |
