SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 75.79%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 8.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.11%) and 3-0 (10.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.46%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Espanyol |
75.79% ( -0.18) | 15.69% ( 0.05) | 8.52% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 44.47% ( 0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.3% ( 0.23) | 40.69% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.92% ( 0.23) | 63.08% ( -0.23) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.94% ( 0.01) | 9.05% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.2% ( 0.03) | 30.8% ( -0.04) |
| Espanyol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.9% ( 0.46) | 51.1% ( -0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.59% ( 0.3) | 85.4% ( -0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Espanyol |
| 2-0 @ 13.34% ( -0.12) 1-0 @ 11.11% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 10.68% ( -0.09)2-1 @ 8.96% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 6.42% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 2.07% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.03)6-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.54% Total : 75.78% | 1-1 @ 7.46% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.63% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.69% | 0-1 @ 3.11% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 1.04% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.86% Total : 8.52% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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