SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 44.7%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 32.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.13%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-2 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
44.7% ( -0.06) | 23.17% ( -0.02) | 32.12% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 63.22% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.97% ( 0.12) | 38.02% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.7% ( 0.13) | 60.29% ( -0.13) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.56% ( 0.02) | 17.43% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.11% ( 0.04) | 47.88% ( -0.04) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.57% ( 0.1) | 23.42% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.58% ( 0.15) | 57.42% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.13% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.23% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.27% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.3% 4-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.58% ( -0)Other @ 4.03% Total : 44.7% | 1-1 @ 10.35% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.56% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.08% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.17% | 1-2 @ 7.51% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.93% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.3% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.64% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.18% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.02% Total : 32.12% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
