SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 44.21%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 29.29% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.91%) and 0-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win was 1-0 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Draw | Arsenal |
29.29% ( -0.12) | 26.5% ( -0.07) | 44.21% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 50.53% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.04% ( 0.21) | 53.96% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.59% ( 0.18) | 75.41% ( -0.17) |
| Brighton & Hove Albion Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.73% ( 0.02) | 33.27% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.12% ( 0.02) | 69.88% ( -0.02) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.73% ( 0.19) | 24.27% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.36% ( 0.26) | 58.64% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Draw | Arsenal |
| 1-0 @ 8.89% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 6.92% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.89% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.54% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.8% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.79% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.46% Total : 29.29% | 1-1 @ 12.58% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.07% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.94% Total : 26.49% | 0-1 @ 11.43% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.91% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 8.09% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4.2% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 3.82% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.49% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.6% Total : 44.21% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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