SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 52.67%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 24.36% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.17%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 2-1 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Oxford United | Draw | Arsenal |
24.36% ( 2.36) | 22.97% ( 0.87) | 52.67% ( -3.23) |
| Both teams to score 57.75% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.44% ( -1.32) | 42.56% ( 1.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.03% ( -1.33) | 64.97% ( 1.33) |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.9% ( 1.32) | 31.1% ( -1.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.57% ( 1.51) | 67.43% ( -1.51) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.82% ( -1.55) | 16.18% ( 1.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.34% ( -2.9) | 45.65% ( 2.9) |
| Score Analysis |
| Oxford United | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.47) 1-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.54)2-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.42)3-1 @ 2.43% ( 0.26)3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.21)Other @ 2.81% Total : 24.36% | 1-1 @ 10.7% ( 0.43) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.29)3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.97% | 1-2 @ 9.75% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 8.35% ( -0.41)1-3 @ 5.92% ( -0.4)0-3 @ 5.07% ( -0.55)2-3 @ 3.46% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 2.7% ( -0.34)0-4 @ 2.31% ( -0.39)2-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.14)1-5 @ 0.98% ( -0.19)Other @ 3.41% Total : 52.67% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arsenal | 32 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 77 | 34 | 43 | 75 |
| 2 | Manchester CityMan City | 30 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 78 | 28 | 50 | 70 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 31 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 54 | 25 | 29 | 59 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 59 |
| 5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 32 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 51 | 7 | 53 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 45 | 41 | 4 | 51 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 59 | 38 | 21 | 50 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 54 | 37 | 17 | 49 |
| 9 | Fulham | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 45 |
| 10 | Brentford | 32 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 48 | 43 | 5 | 44 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 39 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 37 |
| 13 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 27 | 44 | -17 | 34 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 31 | 63 | -32 | 33 |
| 16 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 41 | 62 | -21 | 29 |
| 17 | Leicester CityLeicester | 32 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 28 |
| 18 | Everton | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 28 |
| 19 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 27 |
| 20 | Southampton | 32 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 24 |
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