SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 55.84%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 23.59% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.96%) and 3-1 (6.77%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (5.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Chelsea |
55.84% ( 0.81) | 20.56% ( -0.03) | 23.59% ( -0.77) |
| Both teams to score 65.58% ( -0.86) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.12% ( -0.71) | 31.88% ( 0.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.57% ( -0.84) | 53.42% ( 0.84) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.44% ( -0.01) | 11.55% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 63.51% ( -0.02) | 36.49% ( 0.02) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.15% ( -0.96) | 25.85% ( 0.97) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.18% ( -1.33) | 60.82% ( 1.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.07)1-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.24)3-0 @ 5% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 4.58% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 3.65% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.7% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.04)4-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.05)5-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.93% Total : 55.84% | 1-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 6.37% ( -0.11)0-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.43% Total : 20.56% | 1-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 4.04% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.87% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.19% Total : 23.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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