SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olympiacos win with a probability of 52.51%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 24.48% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olympiacos win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 1-2 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Olympiacos would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Olympiacos | Draw | Qarabag FK |
52.51% ( -0.05) | 23.01% ( 0.02) | 24.48% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 57.77% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.4% ( -0.03) | 42.59% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35% ( -0.03) | 65% ( 0.03) |
| Olympiacos Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.75% ( -0.03) | 16.25% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.22% ( -0.05) | 45.78% ( 0.05) |
| Qarabag FK Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.98% ( 0.02) | 31.02% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.67% ( 0.02) | 67.33% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Olympiacos | Draw | Qarabag FK |
| 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.16% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.32% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.9% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.04% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.45% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.29% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.57% ( -0)5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 3.38% Total : 52.51% | 1-1 @ 10.72% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.35% Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.01% | 1-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.9% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.35% ( 0)Other @ 2.83% Total : 24.48% |
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