SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 51%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for AEK Larnaca had a probability of 22.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.19%) and 1-2 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an AEK Larnaca win it was 1-0 (8.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Fenerbahce in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Fenerbahce.
| Result | ||
| AEK Larnaca | Draw | Fenerbahce |
22.72% ( 0.04) | 26.27% ( 0.01) | 51% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 45.84% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.62% ( 0.01) | 57.38% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.8% ( 0) | 78.2% ( -0) |
| AEK Larnaca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.22% ( 0.04) | 40.78% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.64% ( 0.04) | 77.36% ( -0.04) |
| Fenerbahce Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.4% ( -0.02) | 22.6% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.79% ( -0.03) | 56.21% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| AEK Larnaca | Draw | Fenerbahce |
| 1-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 5.51% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.71% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.65% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.23% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 1.26% Total : 22.73% | 1-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.22% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.1% ( 0)Other @ 0.66% Total : 26.27% | 0-1 @ 13.7% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 10.19% ( -0.01)1-2 @ 9.14% ( -0)0-3 @ 5.05% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.53% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.03% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.88% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.69% ( -0)Other @ 2.78% Total : 50.99% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 31 | 61 | 85 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 36 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 83 | 42 | 41 | 81 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 36 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 69 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 66 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 65 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 35 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 67 | 49 | 18 | 58 |
| 7 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 65 | 59 | 6 | 57 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 57 |
| 9 | Brentford | 36 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 45 | 9 | 53 |
| 10 | Fulham | 36 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 51 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 43 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 43 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 40 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 36 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 39 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 37 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 34 |
| 17 | Everton | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 32 |
| 18 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 36 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 71 | -25 | 31 |
| 19 | Leicester CityLeicester | 36 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 30 |
| R | Southampton | 36 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 66 | -35 | 24 |
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