SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | SBV Excelsior | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitesse | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Emmen | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 40.41%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 34.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Vitesse |
40.41% ( -0.01) | 25.13% ( 0.01) | 34.46% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 56.96% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.44% ( -0.06) | 46.56% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.17% ( -0.05) | 68.83% ( 0.06) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.1% ( -0.03) | 22.9% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.34% ( -0.04) | 56.66% ( 0.05) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.87% ( -0.03) | 26.13% ( 0.03) |
