SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 33 | 8 | 47 |
| 8 | NEC | 33 | -13 | 38 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 33 | 8 | 47 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 44.03%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 30.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Vitesse |
44.03% ( -0.01) | 25.07% ( -0) | 30.9% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 55.93% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.65% ( 0.02) | 47.35% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.43% ( 0.02) | 69.57% ( -0.02) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.48% ( 0.01) | 21.52% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.43% ( 0.01) | 54.57% ( -0) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.26% ( 0.02) | 28.74% ( -0.02) |
