SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 60.17%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Emmen had a probability of 17.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a Emmen win it was 0-1 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Emmen |
60.17% ( 4.24) | 21.92% ( -0.86) | 17.91% ( -3.38) |
| Both teams to score 51.5% ( -2.89) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.82% ( -1.04) | 46.18% ( 1.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.52% ( -0.99) | 68.48% ( 0.98) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.08% ( 1.05) | 14.92% ( -1.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.7% ( 1.96) | 43.3% ( -1.97) |
| Emmen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.53% ( -4.19) | 39.47% ( 4.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.84% ( -4.13) | 76.16% ( 4.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Emmen |
| 1-0 @ 11.2% ( 0.87) 2-0 @ 10.65% ( 1.17)2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.76% ( 0.96)3-1 @ 6.28% ( 0.24)4-0 @ 3.22% ( 0.56)4-1 @ 2.99% ( 0.22)3-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.23)4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.25)5-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.49% Total : 60.16% | 1-1 @ 10.41% ( -0.35) 0-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.54)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.19)Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.92% | 0-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.4) 1-2 @ 4.84% ( -0.77)0-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.51)1-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.45)2-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.36)Other @ 2.12% Total : 17.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 40 | 49 | 75 |
| 3 | Ajax | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 69 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 67 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 27 | 39 | 64 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 59 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 54 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 46 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 40 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 39 |
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 36 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 71 | -29 | 36 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 32 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 |
| R | Cambuur | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 19 |
| R | Groningen | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 75 | -44 | 18 |
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