SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 60.98%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 18.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.64%) and 1-0 (7.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.03%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Twente | Draw | Heerenveen |
60.98% ( -0.15) | 20.04% ( 0.05) | 18.98% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 60.12% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.2% ( -0.06) | 35.8% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.12% ( -0.07) | 57.88% ( 0.07) |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.61% ( -0.06) | 11.39% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 63.86% ( -0.13) | 36.14% ( 0.13) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.85% ( 0.07) | 32.15% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.37% ( 0.08) | 68.63% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Twente | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.64% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 7.96% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.1% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 6.26% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 4.03% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.86% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 3.4% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.65% Total : 60.98% | 1-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.66% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0)Other @ 0.26% Total : 20.04% | 1-2 @ 5.12% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 4.16% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 2.36% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.11% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.31% Total : 18.98% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 40 | 49 | 75 |
| 3 | Ajax | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 69 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 67 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 27 | 39 | 64 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 59 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 54 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 46 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 40 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 39 |
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 36 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 71 | -29 | 36 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 32 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 |
| R | Cambuur | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 19 |
| R | Groningen | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 75 | -44 | 18 |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
