SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 50.73%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 26.85% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.61%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Jong Ajax | Draw | Helmond Sport |
50.73% ( -0.36) | 22.43% ( 0.11) | 26.85% ( 0.25) |
| Both teams to score 62.28% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.27% ( -0.3) | 37.73% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.02% ( -0.32) | 59.98% ( 0.32) |
| Jong Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.89% ( -0.23) | 15.12% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.33% ( -0.43) | 43.68% ( 0.43) |
| Helmond Sport Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.36% ( 0.02) | 26.64% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.13% ( 0.03) | 61.87% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jong Ajax | Draw | Helmond Sport |
| 2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 7.19% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 4.53% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.96% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.83% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.14% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.03)Other @ 4.04% Total : 50.73% | 1-1 @ 10.06% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.29% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.42% | 1-2 @ 6.66% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.77% 0-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 2.19% Total : 26.85% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Willem II | 21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 18 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 26 | 17 | 40 |
| 3 | Roda JC | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 39 |
| 4 | Dordrecht | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 43 | 29 | 14 | 36 |
| 5 | Cambuur | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 33 |
| 7 | Groningen | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 32 |
| 8 | EmmenEmmen | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 32 |
| 9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 31 |
| 10 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 30 |
| 11 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Jong AZJong AZ | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 29 |
| 13 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 26 |
| 14 | Helmond SportHelmond | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 25 |
| 15 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 22 |
| 16 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 18 |
| 17 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 18 |
| 18 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 15 |
| 19 | TelstarTelstar | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 38 | -18 | 15 |
| 20 | TOP OssOss | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 38 | -26 | 11 |
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