SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 61.33%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Dordrecht had a probability of 17.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.41%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Dordrecht win it was 1-0 (5.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dordrecht | Draw | Heracles |
17.48% ( 1.2) | 21.18% ( 1.25) | 61.33% ( -2.45) |
| Both teams to score 53.08% ( -1.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.33% ( -3.49) | 43.66% ( 3.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.95% ( -3.51) | 66.05% ( 3.51) |
| Dordrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.53% ( -0.67) | 38.47% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.78% ( -0.64) | 75.22% ( 0.64) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.27% ( -1.79) | 13.73% ( 1.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59% ( -3.67) | 41% ( 3.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dordrecht | Draw | Heracles |
| 1-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.65) 2-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.25)2-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.27)3-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.51% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.2% Total : 17.48% | 1-1 @ 10.02% ( 0.69) 0-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.77)2-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.18% | 0-1 @ 10.48% ( 0.88) 0-2 @ 10.41% ( 0.22)1-2 @ 9.95% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 6.89% ( -0.33)1-3 @ 6.58% ( -0.44)0-4 @ 3.42% ( -0.41)1-4 @ 3.27% ( -0.46)2-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.27)2-4 @ 1.56% ( -0.25)0-5 @ 1.36% ( -0.27)1-5 @ 1.3% ( -0.29)Other @ 2.96% Total : 61.32% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | Heracles | 37 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 103 | 42 | 61 | 82 |
| P | PEC Zwolle | 37 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 98 | 43 | 55 | 82 |
| 3 | Almere CityAlmere City | 38 | 21 | 7 | 10 | 58 | 41 | 17 | 70 |
| 4 | Willem II | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 68 | 40 | 28 | 67 |
| 5 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 37 | 18 | 5 | 14 | 64 | 63 | 1 | 59 |
| 6 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 38 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 65 | 65 | 0 | 59 |
| 7 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 38 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 56 | 51 | 5 | 58 |
| 8 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 38 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 58 | 54 | 4 | 58 |
| 9 | Jong AZJong AZ | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 60 | 58 | 2 | 51 |
| 10 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 51 | 57 | -6 | 51 |
| 11 | TelstarTelstar | 37 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 50 |
| 12 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 37 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 63 | 54 | 9 | 49 |
| 13 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 69 | 72 | -3 | 46 |
| 14 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 59 | 63 | -4 | 45 |
| 15 | Helmond SportHelmond | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 43 |
| 16 | Roda JC | 37 | 12 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 59 | -10 | 42 |
| 17 | TOP OssOss | 37 | 10 | 6 | 21 | 45 | 76 | -31 | 36 |
| 18 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 37 | 10 | 5 | 22 | 46 | 84 | -38 | 35 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 37 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 41 | 68 | -27 | 34 |
| 20 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 38 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 |
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