SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 48.82%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 27.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.81%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 2-1 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| De Graafschap | Draw | Heracles |
27.33% ( 0.01) | 23.85% | 48.82% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 57.7% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.04% ( 0.01) | 43.96% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.65% ( 0.01) | 66.35% ( -0.01) |
| De Graafschap Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.47% ( 0.01) | 29.53% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 34.45% ( 0.02) | 65.55% ( -0.01) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.87% ( 0) | 18.13% ( 0) |
