SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 41.72%. A win for Watford had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swansea City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Swansea City | Draw | Watford |
41.72% ( -0.86) | 25.64% ( -0.11) | 32.63% ( 0.97) |
| Both teams to score 54.72% ( 0.7) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.76% ( 0.75) | 49.23% ( -0.75) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.7% ( 0.67) | 71.29% ( -0.67) |
| Swansea City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.57% ( -0.1) | 23.42% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.58% ( -0.14) | 57.42% ( 0.14) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.45% ( 1.01) | 28.54% ( -1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.67% ( 1.24) | 64.33% ( -1.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Swansea City | Draw | Watford |
| 1-0 @ 9.7% ( -0.33) 2-1 @ 8.83% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 7.04% ( -0.26)3-1 @ 4.27% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 3.41% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 2.68% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.03% Total : 41.72% | 1-1 @ 12.16% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.21)2-2 @ 5.54% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.64% | 0-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.63% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 5.26% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 3.19% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.11)0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.12)1-4 @ 1% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.67% Total : 32.63% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Burnley | 46 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 87 | 35 | 52 | 101 |
| P | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 46 | 28 | 7 | 11 | 73 | 39 | 34 | 91 |
| P | Luton TownLuton | 46 | 21 | 17 | 8 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 80 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 84 | 56 | 28 | 75 |
| 5 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 70 |
| 6 | Sunderland | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 69 |
| 7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 69 |
| 8 | Millwall | 46 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 68 |
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 59 | 53 | 6 | 66 |
| 10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 66 |
| 11 | Watford | 46 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 56 | 53 | 3 | 63 |
| 12 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 63 |
| 13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 62 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 55 | 56 | -1 | 59 |
| 15 | Hull City | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 51 | 61 | -10 | 58 |
| 16 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 55 | 54 | 1 | 53 |
| 17 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 53 |
| 18 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 53 |
| 19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 46 | 11 | 17 | 18 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 50 |
| 20 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 50 |
| 21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 41 | 58 | -17 | 49 |
| R | Reading | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 44 |
| R | Blackpool | 46 | 11 | 11 | 24 | 48 | 72 | -24 | 44 |
| R | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 42 |
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