Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 46.57%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 33.35% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.69%) and 2-3 (5.38%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.