SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 57.55%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 21.55% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.08%) and 1-0 (7.76%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (5.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.36%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | RB Leipzig |
57.55% ( 0.09) | 20.9% ( -0.04) | 21.55% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 61.36% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.87% ( 0.1) | 36.13% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.76% ( 0.11) | 58.23% ( -0.11) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.56% ( 0.06) | 12.44% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.63% ( 0.12) | 38.37% ( -0.13) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.08% ( 0.01) | 29.92% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.98% ( 0.01) | 66.02% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.08% ( -0)1-0 @ 7.76% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.78% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.62% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.53% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.93% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.13% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.19% Total : 57.55% | 1-1 @ 9.36% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.89% 0-0 @ 3.72% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.65% ( 0)Other @ 0.29% Total : 20.9% | 1-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.37% 1-3 @ 2.27% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 2.97% Total : 21.55% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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