SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 57.3%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Stuttgart had a probability of 20.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Stuttgart win it was 0-1 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | Stuttgart |
57.3% ( 0.23) | 22.61% ( -0.09) | 20.09% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 53.09% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.03% ( 0.19) | 45.97% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.72% ( 0.18) | 68.28% ( -0.18) |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.21% ( 0.14) | 15.79% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.06% ( 0.26) | 44.94% ( -0.26) |
| Stuttgart Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.05% ( -0.03) | 36.95% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.26% ( -0.03) | 73.74% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union Berlin | Draw | Stuttgart |
| 1-0 @ 10.77% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 9.94% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.12% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.4% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.35% Total : 57.3% | 1-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.84% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.93% 3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.61% | 0-1 @ 5.81% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.64% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.68% Total : 20.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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