SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 56.05%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 22.97% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.53%) and 1-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (5.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.22%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Koln | Draw | Werder Bremen |
56.05% ( -0.71) | 20.97% ( 0.22) | 22.97% ( 0.49) |
| Both teams to score 63.17% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.34% ( -0.46) | 34.65% ( 0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.39% ( -0.52) | 56.6% ( 0.52) |
| FC Koln Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.6% ( -0.35) | 12.39% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.72% ( -0.74) | 38.27% ( 0.74) |
| Werder Bremen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.11% ( 0.14) | 27.89% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.5% ( 0.17) | 63.5% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Koln | Draw | Werder Bremen |
| 2-1 @ 9.62% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.53% ( -0.03)1-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 6.7% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 3.5% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 2.74% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.06)5-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.05)4-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.52% Total : 56.05% | 1-1 @ 9.22% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.46% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.34% Total : 20.97% | 1-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 4.41% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.54% Total : 22.97% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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