SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 51.16%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Arsenal Sarandi had a probability of 22.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.22%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for an Arsenal Sarandi win it was 0-1 (8.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Union in this match.
| Result | ||
| Union | Draw | Arsenal Sarandi |
51.16% ( 0.07) | 26.22% ( 0.15) | 22.61% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 45.85% ( -0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.7% ( -0.74) | 57.3% ( 0.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.86% ( -0.59) | 78.14% ( 0.59) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.5% ( -0.28) | 22.49% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.94% ( -0.42) | 56.06% ( 0.42) |
| Arsenal Sarandi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.15% ( -0.64) | 40.85% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.58% ( -0.58) | 77.42% ( 0.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union | Draw | Arsenal Sarandi |
| 1-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.27) 2-0 @ 10.22% ( 0.12)2-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.55% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.7% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.81% Total : 51.15% | 1-1 @ 12.27% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.26)2-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.66% Total : 26.22% | 0-1 @ 8.23% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.25% Total : 22.61% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | River PlateRiver Plate | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 30 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | BelgranoBelgrano | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | LanusLanus | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Rosario CentralRosario | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 22 |
| 6 | TalleresTalleres | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Defensa y JusticiaDefensa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 21 |
| 8 | Godoy CruzGodoy Cruz | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Argentinos JuniorsArgentinos Jrs | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 18 |
| 10 | Racing ClubRacing | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | EstudiantesEstudiantes | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | Newell's Old BoysNewell's OB | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 | Platense | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 14 | TigreTigre | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Instituto | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 16 | Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 15 |
| 17 | Sarmiento | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| 18 | Central CordobaC. Cordoba | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 15 |
| 19 | Boca Juniors | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 14 |
| 20 | ColonColon | 13 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 21 | HuracanHuracan | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 13 |
| 22 | Barracas Central | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 13 |
| 23 | BanfieldBanfield | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 13 |
| 24 | Arsenal SarandiArsenal | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 11 |
| 25 | GimnasiaGimnasia | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 11 |
| 26 | IndependienteIndependiente | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 27 | Atletico TucumanTucuman | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 10 |
| 28 | UnionUnion | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 8 |
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