SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 41.4%. A win for Arsenal Sarandi had a probability of 30.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.36%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Arsenal Sarandi win was 1-0 (10.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Independiente in this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal Sarandi | Draw | Independiente |
30.71% ( 0.13) | 27.89% ( 0.1) | 41.4% ( -0.24) |
| Both teams to score 47.13% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.38% ( -0.32) | 58.61% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.83% ( -0.25) | 79.17% ( 0.25) |
| Arsenal Sarandi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.33% ( -0.07) | 34.66% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.61% ( -0.08) | 71.39% ( 0.07) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.13% ( -0.29) | 27.86% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.53% ( -0.37) | 63.46% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal Sarandi | Draw | Independiente |
| 1-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 6.93% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 2.45% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.2% Total : 30.7% | 1-1 @ 13.07% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.66% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.73% Total : 27.88% | 0-1 @ 12.34% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.36% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 7.89% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.56% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.81% Total : 41.4% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | River PlateRiver Plate | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 8 | 19 | 37 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | TalleresTalleres | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Defensa y JusticiaDefensa | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 29 |
| 5 | EstudiantesEstudiantes | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 28 |
| 6 | Rosario CentralRosario | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 27 |
| 7 | BelgranoBelgrano | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 27 |
| 8 | LanusLanus | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 25 |
| 9 | Argentinos JuniorsArgentinos Jrs | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 23 |
| 10 | Godoy CruzGodoy Cruz | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 23 |
| 11 | Newell's Old BoysNewell's OB | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 | Sarmiento | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 22 |
| 13 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 21 |
| 14 | TigreTigre | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 | GimnasiaGimnasia | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
| 16 | Platense | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 20 |
| 17 | Instituto | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 20 |
| 18 | Central CordobaC. Cordoba | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 19 |
| 19 | Barracas Central | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 18 |
| 20 | Racing ClubRacing | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 18 |
| 21 | Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 17 |
| 22 | ColonColon | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 17 |
| 23 | IndependienteIndependiente | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 17 |
| 24 | HuracanHuracan | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 17 |
| 25 | BanfieldBanfield | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 15 |
| 26 | Atletico TucumanTucuman | 16 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 14 |
| 27 | Arsenal SarandiArsenal | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 14 |
| 28 | UnionUnion | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 9 |
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