SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 42.71%. A win for Arsenal Sarandi had a probability of 28.75% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.47%) and 2-1 (8.25%). The likeliest Arsenal Sarandi win was 0-1 (10.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Arsenal Sarandi |
42.71% ( -0.33) | 28.54% ( 0.12) | 28.75% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 44.49% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.48% ( -0.3) | 61.52% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.62% ( -0.22) | 81.38% ( 0.22) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.46% ( -0.32) | 28.54% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.68% ( -0.41) | 64.32% ( 0.41) |
| Arsenal Sarandi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.25% ( 0.01) | 37.75% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.47% ( 0.01) | 74.53% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Arsenal Sarandi |
| 1-0 @ 13.5% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.06)2-1 @ 8.25% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 3.45% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.62% Total : 42.7% | 1-1 @ 13.16% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 10.77% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.59% Total : 28.54% | 0-1 @ 10.49% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 6.41% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.11% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.69% Total : 28.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | River PlateRiver Plate | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 30 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | TalleresTalleres | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 21 |
| 4 | Defensa y JusticiaDefensa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 21 |
| 5 | BelgranoBelgrano | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | Rosario CentralRosario | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Argentinos JuniorsArgentinos Jrs | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | LanusLanus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 18 |
| 9 | Racing ClubRacing | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 18 |
| 10 | EstudiantesEstudiantes | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 18 |
| 11 | Newell's Old BoysNewell's OB | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 | Platense | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | TigreTigre | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Instituto | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Godoy CruzGodoy Cruz | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
| 16 | Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 15 |
| 17 | Central CordobaC. Cordoba | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 15 |
| 18 | Boca Juniors | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 14 |
| 19 | HuracanHuracan | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 13 |
| 20 | Barracas Central | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 13 |
| 21 | Sarmiento | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| 22 | ColonColon | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
| 23 | GimnasiaGimnasia | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 11 |
| 24 | IndependienteIndependiente | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 25 | BanfieldBanfield | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 10 |
| 26 | Atletico TucumanTucuman | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 9 |
| 27 | Arsenal SarandiArsenal | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 28 | UnionUnion | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 8 |
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