SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 47.18%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Arsenal Sarandi had a probability of 24.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.74%) and 2-1 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.84%), while for an Arsenal Sarandi win it was 0-1 (9.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newell's Old Boys | Draw | Arsenal Sarandi |
47.18% ( -1.39) | 28.17% ( 0.25) | 24.65% ( 1.13) |
| Both teams to score 42.77% ( 0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.69% ( -0.08) | 62.3% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.04% ( -0.06) | 81.96% ( 0.06) |
| Newell's Old Boys Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.42% ( -0.72) | 26.58% ( 0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.2% ( -0.96) | 61.79% ( 0.96) |
| Arsenal Sarandi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.25% ( 1.03) | 41.75% ( -1.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.78% ( 0.89) | 78.21% ( -0.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newell's Old Boys | Draw | Arsenal Sarandi |
| 1-0 @ 14.7% ( -0.26) 2-0 @ 9.74% ( -0.37)2-1 @ 8.51% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 4.3% ( -0.26)3-1 @ 3.76% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 1.64% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.43% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.85% Total : 47.17% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 11.09% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.72% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.52% Total : 28.16% | 0-1 @ 9.69% ( 0.3) 1-2 @ 5.61% ( 0.22)0-2 @ 4.23% ( 0.25)1-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.11)0-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.17% Total : 24.65% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | River PlateRiver Plate | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 37 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Defensa y JusticiaDefensa | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 29 |
| 4 | EstudiantesEstudiantes | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 28 |
| 5 | TalleresTalleres | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| 6 | BelgranoBelgrano | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 27 |
| 7 | Rosario CentralRosario | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 26 |
| 8 | LanusLanus | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 25 |
| 9 | Argentinos JuniorsArgentinos Jrs | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 23 |
| 10 | Godoy CruzGodoy Cruz | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 23 |
| 11 | Newell's Old BoysNewell's OB | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 | TigreTigre | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 21 |
| 13 | Platense | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 | Instituto | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 20 |
| 15 | Sarmiento | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 19 |
| 16 | Boca Juniors | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 18 |
| 17 | Central CordobaC. Cordoba | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 18 | Racing ClubRacing | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 18 |
| 19 | GimnasiaGimnasia | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 20 | IndependienteIndependiente | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 17 |
| 21 | ColonColon | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 17 |
| 22 | HuracanHuracan | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 17 |
| 23 | Barracas Central | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 17 |
| 24 | Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 16 |
| 25 | BanfieldBanfield | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 15 |
| 26 | Atletico TucumanTucuman | 16 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 14 |
| 27 | Arsenal SarandiArsenal | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 11 |
| 28 | UnionUnion | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
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