SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Pen-y-Bont | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Aberystwyth Town | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Haverfordwest County | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Flint Town United | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Cardiff MU | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Pen-y-Bont | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aberystwyth Town win with a probability of 41.94%. A win for Cardiff MU had a probability of 32.38% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aberystwyth Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Cardiff MU win was 0-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
41.94% ( 0.31) | 25.67% ( -0.04) | 32.38% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 54.54% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.57% ( 0.07) | 49.43% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.53% ( 0.06) | 71.47% ( -0.06) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.6% ( 0.18) | 23.4% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.61% ( 0.26) | 57.38% ( -0.26) |
| Cardiff MU Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.2% ( -0.14) | 28.8% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.35% ( -0.17) | 64.65% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
| 1-0 @ 9.79% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.85% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 4.28% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 3.44% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.67% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.03% Total : 41.94% | 1-1 @ 12.18% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.74% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.51% 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.67% | 0-1 @ 8.39% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 32.38% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 12 | 44 | 44 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 38 |
| 3 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 33 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 29 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 28 |
| 6 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 27 |
| 7 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 22 |
| 8 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 21 |
| 9 | Barry Town UnitedBarry | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 | Colwyn Bay | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 14 |
| 11 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 13 |
| 12 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 39 | -25 | 11 |
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