SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Torino | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Roma | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Inter Milan | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 19 | Cremonese | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 68.88%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Monza had a probability of 11.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.39%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Monza win it was 0-1 (4.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | Monza |
68.88% ( 0.31) | 19.57% ( -0.11) | 11.55% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 43.2% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.09% ( -0.03) | 48.91% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29% ( -0.03) | 71% ( 0.03) |
| Roma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.88% ( 0.08) | 13.12% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.23% ( 0.16) | 39.76% ( -0.16) |
| Monza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.72% ( -0.37) | 50.28% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 15.15% ( -0.26) | 84.85% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Roma | Draw | Monza |
| 2-0 @ 13.6% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 13.39% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 9.36% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 9.21% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 6.33% ( -0)4-0 @ 4.68% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 3.22% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.18% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.9% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.59% Total : 68.87% | 1-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.22% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.55% Total : 19.57% | 0-1 @ 4.54% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.29% Total : 11.55% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Napoli | 37 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 75 | 28 | 47 | 87 |
| 2 | Lazio | 37 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 71 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 37 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 69 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 67 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 61 |
| 6 | Roma | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 60 |
| 7 | Juventus | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 59 |
| 8 | Torino | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 53 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 53 |
| 10 | Monza | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 52 |
| 11 | Bologna | 37 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 51 |
| 12 | Udinese | 37 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 46 |
| 13 | SassuoloSassuolo | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 45 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 43 |
| 15 | Salernitana | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 42 |
| 16 | Lecce | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 36 |
| 17 | SpeziaSpezia | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 31 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 37 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 31 |
| 19 | Cremonese | 37 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 24 |
| R | Sampdoria | 37 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 19 |
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