SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 44.64%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 28.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Atalanta BC |
44.64% ( -0.35) | 26.6% ( -0.08) | 28.76% ( 0.43) |
| Both teams to score 49.93% ( 0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.41% ( 0.51) | 54.59% ( -0.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.07% ( 0.43) | 75.93% ( -0.43) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.66% ( 0.05) | 24.34% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.27% ( 0.07) | 58.73% ( -0.08) |
| Atalanta BC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.99% ( 0.61) | 34% ( -0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.31% ( 0.65) | 70.68% ( -0.65) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Atalanta BC |
| 1-0 @ 11.69% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 8.91% ( -0)2-0 @ 8.26% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 4.2% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.89% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.48% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.38% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.56% Total : 44.64% | 1-1 @ 12.61% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.28% ( -0.17)2-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.9% Total : 26.59% | 0-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.8% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.31% Total : 28.76% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Napoli | 37 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 75 | 28 | 47 | 87 |
| 2 | Lazio | 37 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 71 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 37 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 69 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 67 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 61 |
| 6 | Roma | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 60 |
| 7 | Juventus | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 59 |
| 8 | Torino | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 53 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 53 |
| 10 | Monza | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 52 |
| 11 | Bologna | 37 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 51 |
| 12 | Udinese | 37 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 46 |
| 13 | SassuoloSassuolo | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 45 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 43 |
| 15 | Salernitana | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 42 |
| 16 | Lecce | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 36 |
| 17 | SpeziaSpezia | 37 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 31 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 37 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 31 |
| 19 | Cremonese | 37 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 24 |
| R | Sampdoria | 37 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 19 |
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