SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 70.14%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 12.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 1-0 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.98%), while for a Spartak Moscow win it was 1-2 (3.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Zenit St Petersburg | Draw | Spartak Moscow |
70.14% ( -0.83) | 17.24% ( 0.43) | 12.62% ( 0.4) |
| Both teams to score 54.67% ( -0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.45% ( -1.07) | 35.54% ( 1.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.4% ( -1.19) | 57.59% ( 1.19) |
| Zenit St Petersburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.93% ( -0.46) | 9.07% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.17% ( -1.11) | 30.83% ( 1.11) |
| Spartak Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.12% ( -0.09) | 39.88% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.46% ( -0.08) | 76.54% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Zenit St Petersburg | Draw | Spartak Moscow |
| 2-0 @ 10.41% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.09)1-0 @ 8.68% ( 0.28)3-0 @ 8.34% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 7.66% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 5% ( -0.16)4-1 @ 4.6% ( -0.16)3-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.13)5-1 @ 2.21% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.08)5-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.06)6-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.64% Total : 70.13% | 1-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.19)3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.16% Total : 17.24% | 1-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 3.32% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 1.53% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 1.35% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.63% Total : 12.62% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 29 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 73 | 20 | 53 | 67 |
| 2 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 55 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 54 |
| 4 | RostovRostov | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 47 | 40 | 7 | 53 |
| 5 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 49 |
| 6 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 44 | 16 | 47 |
| 7 | Dynamo Moscow | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 45 |
| 8 | OrenburgOrenburg | 29 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 55 | 0 | 43 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 51 | 45 | 6 | 42 |
| 10 | Sochi | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
| 12 | Fakel | 29 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 30 |
| 13 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 29 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 31 | 50 | -19 | 27 |
| 15 | KhimkiKhimki | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 65 | -40 | 18 |
| 16 | Torpedo Moskva | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 58 | -37 | 13 |
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