SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 57.24%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 20.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.98%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Lokomotiv Moscow win it was 1-0 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Zenit St Petersburg |
20.08% ( 0.06) | 22.68% ( 0.02) | 57.24% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 52.86% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.72% ( 0.01) | 46.27% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.43% ( 0.01) | 68.56% ( -0.02) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.86% ( 0.08) | 37.13% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.08% ( 0.08) | 73.92% ( -0.08) |
| Zenit St Petersburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.08% ( -0.02) | 15.92% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.83% ( -0.04) | 45.17% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Zenit St Petersburg |
| 1-0 @ 5.86% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.66% Total : 20.08% | 1-1 @ 10.76% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.91% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.68% | 0-1 @ 10.86% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.98% ( -0.02)1-2 @ 9.89% ( -0)0-3 @ 6.11% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 6.06% ( -0)2-3 @ 3% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.81% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.78% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.38% 0-5 @ 1.03% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 2.31% Total : 57.23% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 28 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 72 | 19 | 53 | 66 |
| 2 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 51 | 24 | 27 | 54 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 58 | 36 | 22 | 50 |
| 4 | RostovRostov | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 50 |
| 5 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 49 |
| 6 | Dynamo Moscow | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 45 |
| 7 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 57 | 44 | 13 | 43 |
| 8 | OrenburgOrenburg | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 40 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 39 |
| 10 | Sochi | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 11 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 30 |
| 12 | Fakel | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 27 |
| 13 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 26 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 50 | -23 | 23 |
| 15 | KhimkiKhimki | 28 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 62 | -37 | 18 |
| 16 | Torpedo Moskva | 28 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 55 | -35 | 13 |
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