SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 39.81%. A win for CSKA Moscow had a probability of 34.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest CSKA Moscow win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sochi | Draw | CSKA Moscow |
39.81% ( 0.06) | 25.83% ( 0.04) | 34.36% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 54.55% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.34% ( -0.17) | 49.66% ( 0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.32% ( -0.15) | 71.67% ( 0.15) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.41% ( -0.05) | 24.59% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.92% ( -0.07) | 59.08% ( 0.07) |
| CSKA Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.33% ( -0.14) | 27.67% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.78% ( -0.18) | 63.22% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sochi | Draw | CSKA Moscow |
| 1-0 @ 9.54% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.6% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.7% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.02% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.41% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.1% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.81% Total : 39.81% | 1-1 @ 12.26% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.83% | 0-1 @ 8.74% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.88% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.62% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.9% Total : 34.36% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Dynamo Moscow | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | RostovRostov | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sochi | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Baltika | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Rubin Kazan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | OrenburgOrenburg | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Fakel | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 |
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