Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 37.89%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.74%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (11.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
