Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 58.65%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 19.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.05%) and 1-2 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 1-0 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
