Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 46.93%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 27.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.
