Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 37.19%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 34.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.93%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 (10.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Akhmat Grozny in this match.
