Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 37.87%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.94%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (10.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
