Both of these sides will be determined to bounce back from midweek defeats, but we are finding it difficult to separate them here. Brighton are in the better form, but they have only won three home Premier League matches this season, so we have had to settle on a low-scoring draw this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 45.93%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 28.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Southampton win was 0-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
