Southampton are more than capable of upsetting Man City to reach the semi-finals, but it is always difficult to back against the Citizens due to the strength of their squad. Guardiola can make changes and still send a brilliant side onto the field, and we are expecting the visitors to secure the victory within 90 minutes here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 62.85%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 16.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.43%) and 1-2 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Southampton win it was 1-0 (4.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
