While Watford are far from being at the point of no return, Hodgson will expect to see a much-improved performance in the search for maximum points. Nevertheless, we feel that the Saints will have too much quality in the final third, edging this contest by the odd goal in three.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 58.35%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Watford had a probability of 18.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.45%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Watford win it was 0-1 (6.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
