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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | New England Revolution | 17 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 16 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | Atlanta United | 15 | 4 | 19 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 16 | 10 | 29 |
| 2 | New York City FC | 15 | 15 | 27 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 17 | 5 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 49.11%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 27.2% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 2-1 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
27.2% ( 1.66) | 23.69% ( 0.25) | 49.11% ( -1.91) |
| Both teams to score 58.11% ( 0.69) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.64% ( 0.21) | 43.36% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.24% ( 0.21) | 65.76% ( -0.21) |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.68% ( 1.38) | 29.31% ( -1.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 34.71% ( 1.66) | 65.28% ( -1.66) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.21% ( -0.64) | 17.79% ( 0.64) |
