Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 55.55%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 20.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
Result | ||
Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
55.55% ( -0.45) | 24.24% ( 0.26) | 20.21% ( 0.18) |
Both teams to score 48.3% ( -0.5) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.56% ( -0.81) | 52.44% ( 0.8) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.88% ( -0.7) | 74.12% ( 0.69) |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.24% ( -0.47) | 18.76% ( 0.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.84% ( -0.8) | 50.16% ( 0.79) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.46% ( -0.27) | 40.54% ( 0.26) |