SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 34.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Girona |
34.27% ( 0.05) | 25.82% ( 0.16) | 39.91% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 54.58% ( -0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.39% ( -0.69) | 49.61% ( 0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.37% ( -0.62) | 71.63% ( 0.62) |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.3% ( -0.3) | 27.7% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 36.74% ( -0.38) | 63.26% ( 0.38) |
| Girona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.49% ( -0.42) | 24.51% ( 0.42) |
