SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 37.5%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 37.44% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.27%) and 0-2 (5.89%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
37.44% ( 0.08) | 25.05% ( -0.01) | 37.5% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 57.59% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.12% ( 0.04) | 45.86% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.81% ( 0.04) | 68.18% ( -0.04) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.87% ( 0.06) | 24.12% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.57% ( 0.08) | 58.42% ( -0.08) |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.9% ( -0.02) | 24.09% ( 0.02) |
