Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 37.47%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 35.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.04%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
